Demonac's Blog

Stuff stuff stuff stuff!!!
Well, I got a long phonecall from Sam last night, and I got to hear his side of the story (of the last 2 D&D sessions without me) in some detail. The other reports I was getting were pretty good, but apparently missed out on... certain points of contention. It was good to talk to him again, although I still find the telephone outdated and primitive as a medium.

The West Wing is over! I can't comprehend how they could NOT renew what was far and away the best drama on TV in every way. I can only think that the reasons were political... the ratings had pulled them through 8 years of fictional Democratic rule (damn near utopian compared to the opposite-land administration IRL), but I guess they couldn't sell the idea of another telepresidential term... the show must have been squashed by the Republicans.

And speaking of political moves, wtf does Bush think he is doing by bolstering the border patrol with National Guard units (the National Guard already being stressed by Iraqi deployments and the pressing need for disaster preparedness in the approaching hurricane and wildfire season)? If he's actually doing just what they are reporting, it would indeed be characteristically stupid of him. In my (post-West Wing trauma) need for analysis it seems more likely that he was merely testing the waters, but to what ends? Interestingly, it seems that the affected State Governors won't even learn the contents of tonight's Oval-Office speech untiil shortly beforehand. The interesting part is to play devils advocate: if Bush were doing something really intelligent for once, what could that be?

The only way I can see this National Guard border-reinforcement (which he claims to be short-term) as being a smart, clever - even devious - move, would be if Bush were planning to declare some kind of partial or blanket amnesty for established illegal immigrants. Regularizing the current illegals would justify (and in fact require) a massive crackdown on any future illegal entry - you can only do it if you make a VERY SERIOUS and credible commitment to never repeat the amnesty - that is, you need the nation and the would-be-illegals to the south to realize and BELIEVE that the amnesty is truly a ONE-TIME thing. If you can't get that across, then you are just encouraging more border-crossing in the future. It would be as effective a deterrent as sending a kid to his room with no supper, then bringing him an icecream sundae five minutes later. But if you wanted to make illegal immigration a fellony, while maintaining ANY semblance of human decency, the obvious way to do it is "from now on", which is only practical if the existing population becomes naturalized to some degree.

Of course, if he wants to issue such an amnesty, it won't *poof* happen... it would take time to beaurocratize - to take names and give out SSNs and other papers. During that period, there would be 10-times the incentive to sneak in - the entire population of Mexico would crash against the US Border, knowing that there is a limited window in which anyone who crosses wins the jackpot. Ergo, a strong need for temporary bolstering of border security (which would have to be replaced with even more permanent security over the period of a few months).

I'm not saying this would work well in the real world... there are a huge number of complicated socio-politico-economic factors interracting on this issue. But ever since the whole debate opened up a few months ago, I have noted; none of the proposed solutions works worth a damn, and the only way to really DEAL WITH the illegal immigration problem in the States would be a combination of ALL the radical right-wing and left-wing ideas on the issue. But who says Bush is doing something smart. It's probably just a political "tough on crime" maneuver that is so ineffective, ill-thought-out and transparent that even the Republican ultra-conservative base doesn't buy it.

Current Mood: they stole my West Wing!

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